Forecasts Provide an “Unprecedented Level of Credibility and Detail” in the Face of Growing Extreme Weather Risks
Dr. Don Wuebbles
In this piece, Dr. Don Wuebbles, who was part of the panel that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for climate science, discusses the growing risk of extreme weather events to society and business—and what he describes as an “unprecedented level of credibility and detail” in forecasts provided by Earth Knowledge to help leaders manage those risks.
It has long been recognized that extreme weather events can result in loss of life and significant damage to infrastructure. What is less well known is that our changing climate is increasing this risk—and, in good news for resilience, there are forecasts that can help leaders manage it.
Consider first the science. Many scientific studies over the last few decades have shown that changes in Earth’s climate are intensifying many forms of extreme weather.
Among the highlights:
- Heat waves are becoming longer and hotter worldwide.
- Dry regions are getting drier, raising concerns about more frequent and longer-lasting droughts.
- Warmer temperatures, increased evaporation, and vegetation drying in some regions are leading to growing concerns about wildfires.
- Wet regions are generally getting wetter, increasing the likelihood of flooding.
- Atmospheric rivers are becoming more intense, increasing the potential for flooding in certain areas, such as the West Coast of the United States.
- Convective storms could produce stronger winds, increasing the likelihood of larger hailstorms.
- Hurricanes (tropical cyclones) will become more intense in response to more atmospheric energy content and increasing ocean water temperatures in the locales of these storms.
The Impact on Well-Being and the Cost and Availability of Goods and Services
Beyond our personal reliance on accurate weather predictions in daily life, weather can affect the cost and availability of goods and services across many sectors of the economy, from food production to energy generation and transportation.
On longer timescales, changes in climate associated with natural climate variability, together with human impacts on the climate system, affect societal vulnerability and many aspects of our economy, including the
- Price of insurance,
- Design of coastal cities, and
- Cost of engineered resilience to storms and weather extremes.
Increasingly, the public and private sectors are realizing the extent to which the costs of services and the ability and costs of doing business are influenced by these changes and impacts.
Translating Risks into Actionable Insights
Translating weather and climate into hazards and potential risk entails identifying and assessing how changing atmospheric conditions create potential negative impacts, including financial, physical, and societal impacts, on essentially all aspects of everyday living, including
- Operations and supply chains,
- Infrastructure,
- Investments, and
- Food security.
These assessments require analyzing hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities to inform proactive resilience strategies and move beyond simply reacting to weather events to address long-term climate shifts.
It is about turning scientific data and information into actionable insights for risk management, addressing both sudden events (e.g., floods and severe storms) and gradual changes (e.g., sea level rise).
“Unprecedented” Credibility and Detail
Earth Knowledge provides comprehensive climate and nature insights through our digital twins of the Earth to enable the identification and quantification of the potential risks leaders must respond to, using defensible data and information describing our rapidly changing planet.
Our analyses integrate the complex interactions among Earth’s land, water, and atmospheric systems to yield the information needed to delineate appropriate human responses.
The analyses can range from considerations of specific assets or asset classes to addressing specific concerns, such as regional to international supply chains.
The Earth Knowledge approach to modeling and projecting changes in future Earth and climate conditions provides an unprecedented level of credibility and detail.
This “system of systems” approach sets a new standard for characterizing past, present, and potential future environmental processes and conditions.